One Firm Says 18,000 Jobs. Another Says 97,500.

The forecasts are five times apart. That has not happened in years.

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 83,000 jobs. FactSet says 97,500. Bank of America says 80,000. Vanguard says 18,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. But the range of payroll estimates is unusually wide, which means a meaningful share of the market is going to be surprised in one direction or the other before nine o’clock.

The signals genuinely conflict. Jobless claims for the week to August 1 came in at 199,000, below the 204,000 expected, and at one point in July hit their lowest since 1969. Yet ADP reported private employers added just 44,000 jobs, against 75,000 forecast.

Here’s why it lands on your desk: this is the first major data point since the Fed’s 9-3 split vote. Markets currently price a 54.7% chance of a hike in September. A soft number strengthens the doves; a strong one vindicates the three who dissented.

Source: CNBC / Benzinga / Kraken Economic Brief

The Last Time This Happened Was 1776

My name is Porter Stansberry.

I’m the founder of one of the largest financial research firms in the world. Over the last 26 years we’ve helped investors navigate almost every major economic cycle.

We’ve also been on the forefront of every big financial story from the rise of Bitcoin and MRNA vaccines to robotics and artificial intelligence – just to name a few.

But today, I’m breaking the biggest story of my career…

An economic story the likes of which we’ve not seen in centuries. In fact, the last – and only time – this happened was in 1776. But now, on the eve of America’s 250th anniversary, it’s happening again.

And as you’ll discover today, the aftershock of this event could “reset” not just your personal wealth, but the entire U.S. economic system:

How you work, how you vote, how you protect and build your wealth… it’s all being turned upside down by what one famous Stanford economist says is:

Yet almost nobody is prepared for it. So, if you’ve been watching the chaos of the past year unfold, struggling to understand what it all means… you’re about to get many - if not all - of the answers you’ve been searching for.

And, most importantly, what it all means for you, your money, and your investment portfolio in the months ahead

Because as you’ll discover, everything from the government taking stakes in companies like Intel, Lithium Americas, and MP Materials.

To Trump’s strike on Venezuela… his deal with Greenland… his seemingly never-ending slew of executive orders… and increasingly centralized grip over the economy…

All the way to the surging popularity of radical socialist politicians like Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani…

It’s all deeply and inexorably intertwined in what is, without a doubt, the most consequential story of the year.

A turning point that one Nobel Prize winner says is dividing not just the economy but our entire society.

And, as my guest and I explain, the financial decisions you make in the face of this New 1776 Moment… they could dictate whether you’re enriched, left stuck in the past, or potentially even impoverished by the seismic changes barreling down upon America.

The stocks to buy… the stocks to sell… and the three money moves to ensure you and your loved ones end up on the winning side of this new economic reality.

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry

Employment has fallen by 833,000 this year

The unemployment rate has stayed low mostly because people have left the workforce, not because more of them found jobs.

That distinction matters enormously and almost never makes the headline. If the labour force shrinks faster than jobs disappear, the unemployment rate can hold steady or even fall while the actual number of employed Americans declines.

Monthly gains tell the same story. May was revised down to 129,000. June came in at 57,000, the weakest in four months. Wednesday’s ADP reading was 44,000.

Citigroup has broken from consensus on exactly this point, forecasting three rate cuts by January and unemployment above 4.5% within months. The market is priced for the opposite. One of them is wrong.

Source: CNBC / TradingEconomics

Beaver County, Utah

Hi, I’m Dylan Jovine

What a drilling team uncovered deep beneath Utah left everyone speechless.

This unexpected discovery in Beaver County has people saying it could change everything.

Warsh has told people around him he got the first ten weeks wrong

The Financial Times reports the new Chair privately acknowledged missteps in his opening stretch.

Specifically, that he failed to reinforce the core message of price stability, and allowed confusion to develop over whether his longer-term reform plans were influencing short-term rate decisions.

That admission lands the same week as the most divided Fed vote since 2016 and a bond market that pushed the thirty-year to a 2007 high on his watch. The 10-year sits at 4.67%, the two-year at 4.24%.

The practical read: a Chair who is recalibrating his communication is a Chair whose next few statements carry more weight than usual. That argues for patience rather than positioning.

Source: Financial Times / Benzinga

A Question Most Homeowners Get Wrong