The List of Weak Banks Already Exists
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16 SEPTEMBER 2026
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Three Numbers to Start
2:00 | this afternoon — the Fed decision, the statement, the vote and the quarterly projections. |
$90.1b | what American banks earned in the second quarter, up 12% on the previous one. |
50% | the uninsured deposit ratio above which researchers class a bank as elevated run risk. It is public. |
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Two O’clock This Afternoon
The decision lands at two, with the statement, the vote and the quarterly projections published together. The press conference follows half an hour later.
The rate itself is the least informative part. The bond market has been pricing this for three weeks, and the two-year Treasury already sits well above the top of the current target range.
The question worth watching is whether the projections include a dot plot. Warsh declined to submit one in June, the first sitting chair on record to do so. A second consecutive quarter without it changes how everything between now and December gets priced, because the market loses the only published guide to where officials think rates are going.
If you want one number rather than a narrative, watch the two-year yield in the minutes after the announcement. It prices the policy path directly, without the earnings and sentiment that muddy an equity index.
The List of Weak Banks Already Exists, and It Is Free
Every bank in America with more than a billion dollars of assets files a quarterly call report with its regulator. Those reports are public, searchable and free.
They contain the figure that actually mattered in 2023.
Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and First Republic — three of the four largest failures in American history, all in the same year — failed the same way. Uninsured depositors left quickly, and there was not enough liquid balance sheet to meet them.
So the metric to look at is the uninsured deposit ratio: the share of a bank’s deposits sitting above the $250,000 insurance limit. Researchers at Florida Atlantic University publish it quarterly from the same call report data regulators use, and treat anything above 50% as elevated run risk.
The ratio tells you how much of a bank’s funding can leave in an afternoon. The second number to pair with it sits in the same filing: liquid assets. A bank with 80% uninsured deposits and a thin liquid book is describing the exact condition that took down three institutions in 2023.
Both figures are in the call report. Neither requires a subscription, and neither is in the marketing material of the bank holding your money.
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What the Same Data Says About the System
The FDIC’s most recent Quarterly Banking Profile reports aggregate net income of $90.1 billion for the second quarter, up $9.7 billion or 12% on the quarter. The number of banks on the FDIC’s problem list declined. Domestic deposits grew for the eighth consecutive quarter.
Five banks have failed this year, out of roughly 3,960 insured institutions. That is the same count as 2023, the year of the regional crisis, and higher than the two each in 2024 and 2025.
The failures this year have been small. Tioga-Franklin Savings, the most recent, was a fraction of the size of the 2023 names.
There is one line in the Q2 data worth sitting with, because it points the other way from the headline. Deposit growth came entirely from uninsured balances. Insured deposits fell 1%.
Money above the insurance limit is the money that moves fastest under stress, and the system now holds proportionally more of it than it did a quarter ago.
Insured money has been made whole in every failure since 1933. Uninsured money has not. At the 2023 failures, depositors above the limit spent days not knowing whether they would be covered, and the eventual decision to cover them was discretionary rather than owed.
The practical version takes about ten minutes. Find your balance per depositor, per bank, per ownership category. Then find your bank’s uninsured ratio in the same public data researchers use.
Anything above the limit sits outside the guarantee, and the ratio tells you how many other people are in the same position at the same institution. Those two numbers together are the whole picture, and most people holding six figures at one bank have never looked at either.
Where the Job Numbers Actually Point
Claims about artificial intelligence destroying employment arrive weekly, and the labour data is a poor place to test them, because it cannot see cause.
What the monthly report shows is net change. August added 162,000 jobs against an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Neither figure says why a particular role disappeared.
A company that automates a function and hires nobody to replace it produces no line in the data. It simply stops posting the vacancy, and the absence never shows up as a loss.
Which is why the honest indicator is job postings rather than employment, and specifically postings in categories most exposed to language models: customer support, basic copywriting, first-pass code, routine analysis. Those are measurable, and they are where displacement would appear first.
Two things follow for anyone holding a portfolio rather than a job.
Labour cost reduction shows up in margins before it shows up in unemployment. A company that replaces twenty support staff with software reports better operating margin for several quarters before any statistic registers the change.
And the beneficiary is rarely the obvious name. The value of a technology accrues partly to whoever builds it and largely to whoever deploys it profitably. That second group is spread across ordinary businesses in unglamorous sectors, and it does not announce itself.
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What is Scheduled
2:00 | today — the decision, the statement, the vote and the projections, published together. |
2:30 | today — the press conference. Historically where chairs move markets by accident. |
Thu–Fri | housing starts and industrial production. Neither matters much once the decision has landed. |
Retail sales landed this morning at half past eight, five and a half hours ahead of the decision. A strong reading hardens the case for a rise before anybody in the room says anything, and yields can move on it first.
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Fifty Percent, and It Is Public
50% | the uninsured deposit ratio above which researchers treat a bank as elevated run risk. Every institution above a billion dollars reports the figure quarterly, to a regulator, in a document anybody can read for nothing. |
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and check whether the list you are being sold is already published for nothing. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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