The Fed Raised Rates, and the Chair Still Will Not Say Where He Stands
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17 SEPTEMBER 2026
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Three Numbers to Start
12–0 | the vote to raise rates yesterday. In July the same committee voted 9–3 to hold. |
16 of 18 | officials who see at least one more increase this year. Four of them see two. |
2029 | when the Fed now expects to reach its 2% inflation target. Five years from the last time it did. |
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The Fed Raised Rates, and the Chair Still Will Not Say Where He Stands
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark by a quarter point yesterday afternoon, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It is the first increase since 2023.
The vote was unanimous, 12 to 0. That is the part worth pausing on, because the same committee split 9–3 in July, and the three dissenters then wanted exactly what everybody voted for yesterday.
Two months of data moved nine people. Warsh described it plainly at the press conference: too many categories posting increases above 3% over both six and twelve months.
His summary was blunter still. “The plain fact is inflation is too high.” And separately: “This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
Then the projections. Sixteen of eighteen participants see scope for at least one more increase before December. Four of them pencilled in two.
A unanimous vote alongside a scattered dot plot is an unusual pairing. It says the committee agreed completely on what to do yesterday and disagrees substantially about everything after that.
And for the second consecutive quarter, Warsh declined to submit his own dot. He encouraged colleagues to do so and withheld his. There is no precedent for a sitting chair doing that once, let alone twice.
Which leaves the market reading eighteen anonymous opinions while the only one that reliably predicts policy is deliberately absent. Every speech he gives between now and December will be parsed for the forecast he chose not to publish.
One further line deserves attention because it moved and almost nobody reported it. The committee now expects to reach its 2% target in 2029. That is a longer runway than markets assumed earlier this year, and it is the Fed telling you its own patience has been extended.
What a Rate Rise Does to Gold, and Why It Did Not
Textbook says a rate rise should hurt gold. The metal pays no interest, so when Treasuries pay more, the opportunity cost of holding a bar goes up and the price should fall.
That relationship has been unreliable all year, and understanding why matters more than the rule.
What actually drives gold is the real rate — the nominal yield minus expected inflation. A quarter-point rise alongside upgraded inflation projections can leave the real rate unchanged or lower. The Fed raised nominal rates yesterday and nudged its own inflation forecasts up in the same document.
And the second driver has nothing to do with rates at all. Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in a single quarter this year while the price was falling 16%. That buying does not consult the fed funds rate.
So the honest framing is that gold responds to two forces which frequently point in opposite directions, and yesterday moved both of them at once.
For anyone holding metal, the useful question after a decision like this is not what the price did in the hour afterwards. It is whether the inflation projection moved further than the rate did — because that is the real rate, and that is what the metal is actually pricing.
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What Changes in Your Accounts, and When
A quarter point sounds small and reaches different parts of a balance sheet at very different speeds.
Immediately: anything tied to the prime rate. Credit card APRs, home equity lines and variable-rate loans reprice within a statement cycle or two. A quarter point on $20,000 of revolving balance is about $50 a year.
Within weeks: money market funds and Treasury bills. These track the policy rate closely and pass increases through almost fully, because they hold short paper that rolls constantly.
Slowly and partially: bank savings accounts. Deposit rates rise when banks need funding and not before. The pass-through on the way up has historically been a fraction of the move, while cuts arrive in full and immediately.
Already done: mortgages. The thirty-year is set by the ten-year Treasury plus a spread, and the bond market priced this weeks ago. The rate on offer today reflects the decision that was expected, not the one that happened.
Which produces the practical asymmetry. If you hold cash at a bank, the increase reaches you last and smallest. If you hold it in a money fund or bills, it reaches you within weeks and nearly in full. The gap between those two is a decision, not an accident, and it is one of the few things in this letter you control entirely.
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What is Scheduled
Oct | the next meeting. Goldman expects it to be skipped, given its proximity to the midterms. |
Dec | where the market and most of the committee expect the next increase to land. |
Records | diesel prices hit fresh highs on Wednesday, which is the input feeding the readings Warsh described. |
Warsh made a point of separating what the Fed can and cannot do. It cannot affect any individual price, he said, using oil and groceries as the examples. What it can do is stop a change in relative prices from broadening into everything else.
That is a precise description of the bind. The inflation currently running above target is being fed by an energy shock the committee has no tools to address, and the tools it does have work by slowing everything else down.
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Twelve to Nothing, and Eighteen Different Answers
12–0 | the vote to raise rates, from a committee that split 9–3 two months ago. The agreement covers yesterday only. On what happens next, sixteen of eighteen want more and four want twice as much, and the chair declined to say for the second quarter running. |
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and move your cash to where the increase actually reaches you. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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