June Was the First Month Tariffs Ran Backwards

Share
June Was the First Month Tariffs Ran Backwards
Deals Catchers
Deals Catchers • August 25, 2026
Mike LeeBy Mike Lee · 25 Aug 2026

In June the United States collected negative tariff revenue. It had never happened before, and $166 billion is now moving in the opposite direction.
Because it’s not just a payout it’s the first sign of a massive wealth shift already in motion.  Tap here to claim your Restoration Access now »  Ad
Stacked shipping containers at a quiet port
Featured
TARIFFSCourt filings
The Tariff Money Was Real. Now It’s Running Backwards.
Net customs receipts came in at minus $25.6 billion in June — the first month in American history that the government paid out more in tariff refunds than it took in.
The chain of events is short and consequential. On February 20 the Supreme Court ruled 6–3, with the Chief Justice writing, that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise a president to impose tariffs — striking down both the reciprocal tariffs announced in April 2025 and the trafficking tariffs alongside them. Two weeks later a judge at the Court of International Trade ordered the money returned to importers, with interest accruing at an estimated $650 million a month.
The sums are not marginal. Customs had collected roughly $133 billion under that authority by mid-December, and the government’s own figure for the full programme is about $166 billion. Total tariff collections across the last two fiscal years ran near $314 billion, meaning the invalidated tariffs accounted for something like 42% of everything the country took at the border.
Collected, then handed back
IEEPA tariff revenue.
The unwind is already well advanced. In a filing this month the administration said it had refunded about $100 billion, roughly 60% of the total. Customs reported more than 75,000 declarations submitted and nearly 17.7 million import entries reprocessed, with about $128.7 billion in potential and certified refunds accepted into the system.
The revenue did not simply vanish, because the tariffs did not. Within hours of the ruling a new 10% global tariff was signed under a different statute, and the industry-specific duties on steel, aluminium, cars and heavy trucks were never in question — those alone are projected to raise $635 billion over the coming decade. What changed is the legal basis, and with it the answer to who has a claim on the money.
Here’s why it lands on your desk: hundreds of billions of dollars collected at the border are being reallocated right now, by courts rather than by legislation. The argument over who ends up holding it — importers, the Treasury, or households — is the live question of this fiscal year, and it is being settled in filings most people will never read.
Source: Supreme Court / Court of International Trade / CBP
Sponsored
They’re Calling It a Restoration Dividend
Video
Did you claim your $2,000 tariff dividend from Trump yet?!
Because it’s not just a payout it’s the first sign of a massive wealth shift already in motion.

Trump’s calling it a Restoration Dividend.
Others say it’s “America’s next great reset.”

Here’s the truth:
This isn’t about charity, it’s about taking control back.
Your savings. Your retirement. Your freedom.

The first checks are just the beginning.
The real opportunity? Is what comes next.
By the time the media catches up… it’ll already be too late.
Latest StoriesSee all →
A shuttered bank teller window
BANKINGRule in force since June
Nearly 100,000 Complaints About Closed Accounts
The Comptroller of the Currency examined nine of the largest US banks and found the same or substantially similar account-closure policies at every one of them. It is now working through close to 100,000 pending consumer complaints.
The mechanism at issue is called reputational risk, and what it demonstrates is how little of this was ever written into law. For years, supervisors could criticise a bank for keeping a customer whose lawful business simply looked bad, and banks acted accordingly — closing accounts on the basis of values-alignment criteria rather than any documented financial or legal problem. No statute required it. No vote authorised it. It operated through guidance documents and examination practice, which is precisely why it could reach nearly 100,000 people before anyone counted.
It was then reversed just as quickly, and by the same kind of instrument. An executive order in August 2025 prohibited politicised or unlawful debanking. By June 9 this year a joint final rule from the Comptroller and the FDIC had removed reputational risk from bank supervision altogether. Ten months from one posture to the opposite one, with no legislation involved at either end — which tells you how fast this can move, and in which direction depends entirely on who is writing the guidance.
The perimeter widened in March, when the Federal Trade Commission sent warning letters to the largest payment processors, putting them on notice that helping banks debank customers could itself breach the FTC Act. Payment networks sit between you and every card transaction you make, and until this year nobody had suggested their account-eligibility policies were the government’s business.
Underneath all of it sits a quieter document. The Comptroller had to issue a bulletin reminding banks that they are obliged to protect customers’ financial records under the Right to Financial Privacy Act even when a government agency asks for them, and to use voluntary suspicious activity reports properly rather than freely. Regulators do not write that sentence down unless the practice had already drifted a long way from it.
The distinction worth holding: an account feels like a private contract, and legally it is a permission. The rules governing who may look at your transactions, and who may end your access to the system entirely, were rewritten twice in twelve months — both times by executive instrument rather than by Congress, and both times in documents that arrived without a headline. Whichever way the current version points, the mechanism that moved it is still sitting there.
Source: OCC / FDIC / FTC
Sponsored
U.S. Government Digital Dollar Plan
Benjamin Franklin
We have urgent news…

The U.S. government is moving forward with the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) — and this may be your final opportunity to protect your cash and privacy.

Once this system is in place, the government will have full control over your money.
They’ll decide what you can buy… how much you can spend…
and they’ll be able to track every transaction you make.

But here’s the good news — there’s still time to legally “opt out” before the Digital Dollar becomes mandatory.

Everything you need to know is explained step-by-step in this new, confidential guide.

Click here now to get your FREE copy before it’s taken down.

This may be your only chance to learn how to protect your savings, your privacy, and your family’s financial freedom before the switch is flipped.

Don’t wait — every day you delay gives the government more power over your money.
An old filing drawer left half open
UNCLAIMEDState treasuries
$70 Billion Nobody Has Asked For
State treasurers and comptrollers are holding an estimated $70 billion in unclaimed money and property, belonging to roughly one American in seven.
The mechanism is dull and entirely automatic. When a bank, employer, insurer, utility or government agency owes someone money and loses contact with them for a set dormancy period — commonly one to five years — the law requires the holder to turn the money over to the state, which keeps it in the owner’s name indefinitely. Uncashed final paychecks, forgotten utility deposits, insurance proceeds, pension stubs, inherited accounts, dormant safe deposit boxes.
Seventy billion, waiting
Unclaimed property held by state.
California alone holds around $15 billion, Texas more than $10.5 billion, Ohio roughly $4.8 billion. Categories cluster in ways that make sense once you see them: mineral and oil royalties escheat heavily in producing states when an owner dies, moves or changes name; manufacturing regions carry decades of uncashed final paychecks from plants that closed; states with young, mobile populations accumulate forgotten deposits.
One route changed recently and it is worth knowing. The federal Treasury Hunt tool was discontinued on September 30, 2025, and oversight of unredeemed savings bonds moved to state unclaimed-property offices under SECURE 2.0. Around $29.7 billion in matured savings bonds sits unclaimed — bonds that stopped paying interest decades after purchase, waiting for someone to remember they exist. If you searched the old federal tool and found nothing, you searched a system that no longer holds the answer.
If you are drawing income from savings, this is the rare category where the money is already yours and the only question is whether anyone ever told you it was there. Nobody writes to inform you. The obligation on the holder ends the moment the money reaches the state, and after that it simply waits in your name for as long as it takes.
Source: NAUPA / state treasurer offices / NAST
Sponsored
No Applications. No Drama.
Video
A few people are collecting government checks that have nothing to do with taxes or Social Security.

No applications. No drama.

Curious how they’re doing it?
THE WEEKTomorrow and Thursday
Nvidia Tomorrow. Warsh Thursday. Odds Say Nothing Happens.
Two events sit back to back, and the market has priced neither as a risk. That is the setup worth noticing.
Kevin Warsh takes the Jackson Hole podium for the first time as chair from Thursday to Saturday. The symposium exists to let a chair signal, and this is a chair who has spent his tenure arguing that signalling is the problem — he has scrapped conventional forward guidance and floated cutting the number of policy meetings each year. Either he makes a statement or he demonstrates he will not, and both are information.
The odds halved in two weeks
Market-implied probability of a September rate rise.
The odds of a September move have roughly halved in a fortnight, from near 50% to about 27%, with no rise fully priced before the start of next year. That is a long way from the July meeting, where three officials dissented in favour of hiking. Either the committee has moved a great deal or the market has.
The fiscal backdrop is the part that does not resolve this week. Funding now runs to December 11 under the Senate’s stopgap, the $95 billion budget resolution passed by the House is stalled for want of Senate votes, and roughly $100 billion of tariff money is being handed back while interest accrues on the rest.
If you are drawing income from savings, the thing to watch is the gap. A record-high index priced for no rate rise, going into a speech from a chair who refuses to pre-commit, leaves very little room for a surprise in either direction.
Source: CME FedWatch / Federal Reserve / Treasury
By the time the media catches up… it’ll already be too late.  Tap here to claim your Restoration Access now »  Ad
The Week Ahead
Nvidia reports Wednesday, Jackson Hole opens Thursday. Back to back, which means a soft guide and a hawkish speech would compound rather than cancel each other out.
Interest on the tariff refunds accrues at about $650 million a month. Every week the unwind takes adds to the bill, and the money leaves the same Treasury already running a deficit.
Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, cars and heavy trucks were untouched by the ruling and are projected to raise $635 billion over the coming decade. The tariff regime shrank; it did not disappear.
The Comptroller is still working through roughly 100,000 debanking complaints. Findings from that review are the next thing likely to move the rules on who banks may refuse to serve.
Around $29.7 billion sits in matured savings bonds alone, paying no interest and waiting on someone to remember they were bought. Oversight of those moved to the states last autumn, so the route to finding one changed without much announcement.
 
Stat of the Day
Net US customs receipts in June — the first month on record that tariff refunds exceeded tariff collections
−$25.6bn
US Treasury, June 2026
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and go looking for the money that is already yours before you chase the money that isn’t. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took.
— Lee
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.

Read more

The Stretch Lasted 36 Years. Heirs Now Have Ten.

The Stretch Lasted 36 Years. Heirs Now Have Ten.

The tape is watching the next industrial project. The inherited-IRA deadline is 101 days out, and a missed withdrawal is now a 25% bill.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  21 SEPTEMBER 2026 By Mike Lee sponsoredThis Tesla Demo Shocks EveryoneThis Tesla Demo Shocks Everyone"Hi, I'm Jeff Brown...I'm

By Mike Lee
Forty-Five Percent, Against a Record of Twenty-Seven

Forty-Five Percent, Against a Record of Twenty-Seven

AI-linked stocks are 45% of the S&P 500 against a previous record of 27%. Goldman now attributes half the index's earnings growth to the same spending.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  18 SEPTEMBER 2026 By Mike Lee sponsoredThe Hidden Middleman Cut in Every CupSUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSISThe Hidden Middleman Cut Built

By Mike Lee
The Fed Raised Rates, and the Chair Still Will Not Say Where He Stands

The Fed Raised Rates, and the Chair Still Will Not Say Where He Stands

The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, unanimously, and then published a dot plot on which nobody agrees about what comes next. The chair again withheld his own.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  17 SEPTEMBER 2026 By Mike Lee sponsoredA Promiscuous Robot (Only Today — Invest Before 9/17 or Miss This Price

By Mike Lee
The List of Weak Banks Already Exists

The List of Weak Banks Already Exists

Every bank above a billion dollars publishes its uninsured deposit ratio every quarter. That number predicted the 2023 failures, and it is free to look up.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  16 SEPTEMBER 2026 By Mike Lee sponsoredWhy Is This NVIDIA Collaborator Robot Called Flippy?Why’s This NVIDIA Collaborator Robot Called Flippy? (Invest by

By Mike Lee