It Sold 5% of Itself. The Other 95% Is Still Coming.

It Sold 5% of Itself. The Other 95% Is Still Coming.

SpaceX listed on June 12 at $135, valuing it at $1.77 trillion — the largest IPO ever done. It peaked at $225.64 in mid-June, bottomed at $104.83 on August 2, and trades near $141 today. Barely above where it started.

The mechanism that produced that shape is not mysterious, and it is the same one that produces it almost every time. The company offered less than 5% of its shares. A small float against enormous demand is an engineered shortage, and shortages produce prices that have very little to do with the business underneath.

At the top, the market valued the company at $2.64 trillion — 141 times the $18.7 billion of revenue it earned in 2025. Then the first earnings report landed on August 4. Revenue beat, and the stock fell hard anyway, because the same document disclosed $28.5 billion of first-half capital spending and roughly $25 billion of negative free cash flow. At that rate the $100 billion on the balance sheet lasts about two years.

There is a second number in that report worth pairing with the first. Revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, up 33% on the year, and the company still posted a GAAP net loss of nearly $5 billion. Growth and losses are both real and both large, which is why the stock can be argued either way with a straight face — and why the argument gets settled by supply rather than by opinion.

Here is the part almost nobody prices in advance, and it is entirely knowable. The float rises from 1.8 billion shares today to 5.2 billion by early December as lock-ups expire. Nearly three times as much stock becomes sellable, on dates published in the prospectus, held by people who bought years ago at a fraction of today's price.

Here’s why it lands on your desk: an IPO is not a company becoming available. It is a small slice of a company becoming available first, at a price set by that scarcity, with the rest arriving later on a schedule anyone can read. The people who owned it before the bell are not selling on day one because they are not allowed to. That is what the calendar is for.

Source: Nasdaq / SEC filings / Motley Fool

Regular Investors Fund the Exit

Most people think buying an IPO on day 1 is smart.

It’s not.

Look at the track record:

Uber dropped 40% in six months.

Meta fell nearly 50% in three months.

Robinhood crashed 85% in five months.

Even SpaceX …

The biggest IPO ever …

Lost nearly $1 trillion in market value in two weeks.

The pattern is consistent.

Regular investors fund the exit of insiders.

The people who actually make the big money got in years earlier …

Founders, early employees, venture capitalists and Wall Street banks.

That’s the real IPO game.

Right now, there’s a major AI company preparing to go public.

I’ve found a way for regular investors to get exposure before the IPO happens …

Without the usual lockup restrictions.

Best regards,
Michael Robinson
Director of Tech Strategies
Weiss Ratings

NASA Rents Out Apollo’s Launch Pad. The Rent Is Not the Point.

Kennedy Space Center now runs roughly 250 active partnership agreements with about 100 private-sector partners. The pad Apollo 11 launched from is leased to a commercial operator on a twenty-year deal.

This is a deliberate policy, not an accident. The NASA Authorization Act of 2010 designated Kennedy a multi-user launch complex for government and commercial operations. After the shuttle retired, the centre identified 23 underutilised assets suitable for commercial lease — launch pads, runways, support buildings — and set up a Spaceport Development Division whose explicit job is to be the front door for outside companies.

The economics of these deals are worth understanding, because they explain why the numbers attached to them look strange. Under the Launch Complex 39A agreement, the tenant operates and maintains the facility entirely at its own expense. That is the trade. NASA was carrying maintenance costs on infrastructure it no longer needed; a commercial operator takes the burden, and the agency gets its asset used instead of decaying. Rent was never the objective.

An audit by NASA’s own inspector general put the reasoning bluntly: the centre was transitioning from a complex used solely for government launches to a multi-user spaceport, in order to cut the cost of maintaining shuttle-era assets it no longer needed while encouraging a commercial industry to develop. Two objectives, one lease. Neither of them is revenue.

Kennedy even built for the small end. Launch Complex 48, completed in 2020, is a ten-acre clean pad designed for vehicles producing 500,000 pounds of thrust or less, with almost no fixed structures — just a catch basin and wind socks. The design is deliberately generic so that several small operators can share it. And in May this year one logistics firm signed for 64 acres to build two processing facilities privately, more than half a million square feet between them.

The distinction worth holding: a lease at a federal spaceport is a real and unusual asset, and it is also a document rather than a business. It tells you a company cleared a security and technical review. It does not tell you the company has customers, a working vehicle or a route to profit — and all three of those are separate questions with separate answers.

Source: NASA / NASA Office of Inspector General

Most Investors Look at Price. I Look at Access.

Most investors look at price.

I look at access.

Because price tells you what the crowd believes today.

Access tells you what the people on the inside may already know.

And one tiny public company has an address that is almost impossible to ignore.

It operates inside the secure perimeter of Kennedy Space Center, where SpaceX and Blue Origin are its neighbors.

And they have a special agreement allowing it to use a multi-billion dollar federal launch facility for just $500…

Yet its shares still trade for less than $5.

The Pentagon is already paying them.

So are Lockheed Martin and GE Aerospace.

That combination of elite access, major customers, and a tiny share price is what led my private intelligence contact to take a closer look.

And he found a launch technology that could eliminate one of the most expensive problems every rocket company faces.

I am not going to explain that technology here because it would give away too much.

But I will show you the company, the research, and why early investors could see gains as high as 997% here.

For now, most Wall Street analysts do not even know this company exists.

With a major milestone I reveal in this presentation approaching, that may not last much longer.

Shelf Space Is a Filter Before It Is a Sales Channel

A hardware product that reaches a Best Buy or Home Depot shelf has cleared a review most people never see: safety certification, returns liability, packaging standards, supply guarantees and a buyer willing to stake their own budget on it.

That matters more in this category than in most. Smart device prices have fallen 22% since 2021, and 53% of people who have not bought one still name cost as the main barrier. A cost-sensitive majority does not discover products through venture-funded advertising. It discovers them in an aisle, next to a competitor, with a price on a card.

There is also a timing point specific to this category. Retail buyers commit to planograms months ahead of the season, so a product on a shelf today was approved in the spring — which means shelf presence is a lagging indicator of a decision somebody made two or three quarters ago, not a signal about this month.

The economics cut the other way too, which is the part worth remembering. Retail takes a substantial margin, demands consistent inventory, and can delist a product in one buying cycle. Distribution proves a company can manufacture reliably and satisfy a professional buyer. It does not prove the units leave the shelf, and sell-through is the number nobody puts in a press release.

The distinction worth holding: national distribution is a genuine credential and a genuinely hard one to fake. Read it as evidence about the operation rather than about demand, and then go looking for the demand number separately.

Source: Category adoption surveys / retail industry data

NOW ON SHELVES NATIONWIDE

Best Buy • The Home Depot • Lowe’s • Amazon • Linen Chest

Over 90% of hardware technology startups collapse long before they ever land nationwide retail distribution.

Securing prime shelf space at major retail giants normally requires a decade of burning through venture capital.

That is why institutional insiders froze when an AI smart-home startup quietly broke onto the shelves of Best Buy, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s.

✓ Real Scale & Track Record: $20M+ in revenue, 70,000+ devices sold, 10 granted patents, and 100+ Best Buy retail locations.

Their patented technology solves a massive physical blindspot: 92% of the world’s window shades are still operated manually by hand.

You can see why 4,000+ investors have already committed $15M+ to this $2.50 pre-IPO offer here.

With reserved Nasdaq ticker $RYSS and Daymond John among their prominent backers, RYSE is offering shares directly to individual investors.

Current shares are set at $2.50, but this round pricing is strictly scheduled to change on August 31.

✱

Two Prints Decide a Rate Decision Nobody Will Signal

The August jobs report and August CPI both land before the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16. After Friday, markets put the odds of a rise at roughly 60%, up from 35% before Warsh spoke.

He moved that number without committing to anything, which is the defining feature of this chair and the reason the two data releases now carry the whole decision. There is no framework published against which to test them. The market will have to price the response itself, in the minutes after each print.

Core PCE, the gauge the Fed actually targets, ran at 3.3% in July against 2.8% in February. The two-year Treasury yield sits at 4.34% after jumping eleven basis points on the speech, while the thirty-year barely moved — a market that believes action is coming and believes it will work.

If you are drawing income from savings, the calendar is unusually simple this month. Two numbers, then a decision. Nothing scheduled in between will tell you more than those releases do, and nobody at the Fed intends to help you interpret them in advance.

Source: CME FedWatch / Bureau of Economic Analysis / Reuters