Half the Fed Wants Rates Higher. Warsh Decides Wednesday.

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Half the Fed Wants Rates Higher. Warsh Decides Wednesday.
Deals Catchers
Deals Catchers • July 22, 2026
Mike LeeBy Mike Lee · 22 Jul 2026

Here’s what moved your money in the last 24 hours — and the one week ahead that decides the rest.
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Empty podium and microphone in a dim hall
Featured
RATES / POLICYNext Wednesday
A man you didn’t vote for decides what your savings are worth
Kevin Warsh holds his first real rate decision on July 29 — and half his committee wants rates higher, not lower.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28 and 29. Warsh took over as Chair in May, and this is the first meeting where his own view carries the room. He has not been coy about it: at a forum in Portugal this month he said flatly that prices are too high, and that taming inflation is the Fed’s primary job.
At the June meeting, half of the eighteen policymakers who submitted projections supported raising rates before year-end. Markets put the odds of a hike next week near 25% — low, but no longer unthinkable.
Then the morning after the decision, the data lands: GDP, PCE inflation, personal income and jobless claims, all at 8:30 a.m. Warsh calls it Wednesday; Thursday says whether he was right.
One week, three decisions
What lands between now and July 29 — and what each one prices.
Here’s why it lands on your desk this week: every mortgage rate, CD yield and bond price you own gets repriced off that one sentence — and it arrives with a data verdict twelve hours behind it.
Source: Federal Reserve / CME FedWatch
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Oil tanker on dark water at dusk
ENERGYThis morning
Oil jumps above ninety-four on the eleventh round of strikes
Brent rose 4.8% to $94.93, briefly topping ninety-five — its highest in over a month.
West Texas crude climbed past $88. The move followed the eleventh consecutive round of US strikes on Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Iran is “not serious about talks.” US stock futures slipped on the news.
The reason it matters is the chain behind it: oil up means fuel and shipping costs up, which means inflation readings up — handing an already hawkish Fed one more reason to hold rates high next Wednesday.
Source: CNBC
Gold bars in low-key light
GOLDToday
Gold quietly climbs back to a two-week high
Written off days ago as the year’s worst asset, gold rose about 1.3% to near $4,112.
Safe-haven demand returned as the Middle East conflict escalated and technical buyers stepped in. Silver held above fifty-eight dollars. The metal is still well below its January peak — but the reasons it ran in the first place, a $39 trillion national debt and three years of record central-bank buying, have not changed.
The squeeze, in three numbers
What moved today while everyone watched the stock screen.
If you hold anything defensive, read this as the market reminding you why: the crowd declared gold dead about ten days before it turned.
Source: TradingEconomics
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AI / MARKETSYesterday
Chips bounce hard, but the real test is tonight
Micron, AMD, Intel, SanDisk and Western Digital rallied, pushing the Nasdaq up 1.29%.
Super Micro jumped 17.5% after hours on more than $60 billion in new AI server orders. But the semiconductor index is still roughly 20% below its June high, and the bounce only holds if tonight’s earnings from the biggest technology companies confirm the spending is real.
If you own an index fund, you own this argument whether you follow it or not — these names carry enough weight to move the whole market either way.
Source: CNBC / Markets.com
AI / INFRASTRUCTUREThis week
The AI trade has quietly split into two different bets
The famous names everyone argues about, and the invisible layer that gets paid regardless.
Every buildout in history has had this shape. There are the brands on television, and underneath them the suppliers, licensors and infrastructure firms that collect from whoever wins. The second group rarely makes headlines — which is usually the point.
The distinction matters for anyone protecting retirement money: you don’t have to pick the winning brand if you understand who gets paid either way.
Source: Deals Catchers analysis
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Apple, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, SpaceX, Samsung, Meta - they all pay one company billions in royalties every year.

Its tech sits in nearly every smartphone and AI chip on Earth.

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Dylan Jovine - 30 years on Wall Street, read by 500,000 investors - called the 2006 crash a year early, Palantir at $7.38 (2,712%), and Rocket Lab at $3.80 (3,850%).

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And there’s a date on it: July 29th.

That’s when this firm reports earnings.

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“The Buck Stops Here,”
Kelly Maguire
Behind the Markets
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Quick Hits
Silver held above fifty-eight dollars an ounce, still up roughly 48% over the past year on industrial demand. The metal nobody discusses keeps outrunning the one everybody does.
The dollar firmed as hawkish Fed expectations built, which quietly makes every import you buy cheaper and every export America sells harder. Watch it into next Wednesday.
Alphabet and Tesla report tonight, the first real test of whether AI spending is still accelerating. If either disappoints, last week’s rotation out of tech resumes.
Jobless claims and PCE both land Thursday morning, twelve hours after the Fed decides. That sequencing is unusual and it means next week can move your portfolio twice.
 
Stat of the Day
Share of Fed policymakers who penciled in a rate hike before year-end
50%
nine of eighteen, June projections
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and let the loud week happen without you. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took.
— Lee
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.
✱ Sources & Disclosures
✱ “Trump’s New Dollar” is the publisher’s own descriptive labels; they are not official U.S. government programs, and this message is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or authorized by any government agency, official, or named individual.