A 93.7% Win Rate Can Lose Money
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11 SEPTEMBER 2026
By Mike Leesponsored 971 Trades. 910 Winners. |
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Three Numbers to Start
93.7% | a win rate that tells you nothing on its own. The missing number is the size of the average win against the average loss. |
$103 | Brent crude, closing a week up 8.4% — above $100 for the first time since mid-May. |
400m | barrels drained from global oil inventories so far this year, by the EIA’s estimate. |
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A 93.7% Win Rate Can Lose Money, and Usually the Arithmetic Is Missing
Win rate is the most quoted number in trading and the least informative. It answers one question — how often — and leaves the only question that matters unanswered.
Work an example with the figures in front of us. A system reports 971 trades over five years, 910 of them winners and 61 losers. Suppose each winner makes $100 and each loser costs $1,600.
That is $91,000 of gains against $97,600 of losses. A 93.7% win rate, and the account is down $6,600 over five years.
Nothing in that example is exotic. Selling options for small premiums produces exactly this shape: frequent small wins, rare large losses. The win rate is genuinely high and it is genuinely not the point.
The number that decides the outcome is expectancy — the average result per trade, which is the win rate times the average win, minus the loss rate times the average loss. It can be computed from any honest track record in one line, and it is almost never printed.
Run the same 971 trades the other way. Forty percent winners at $500 each, sixty percent losers at $200 each. That produces $194,200 of gains against $116,520 of losses — a profit of nearly $78,000 on a losing-looking win rate.
This is why professional traders talk about expectancy and amateurs talk about accuracy. Being right often is a pleasant experience. Being right in the right proportion to how much you are wrong is the business.
Three questions turn any track record into information, and all three can be asked in a sentence.
What was the average win and the average loss? Two numbers. Without them the win rate is decoration.
What was the largest single loss? A system can have excellent expectancy and still produce a drawdown nobody could sit through.
Were these real trades or a backtest? A record assembled after the fact has had its worst decisions edited out by hindsight, whether or not anybody intended to.
None of which says a high win rate is a red flag. It says it is half a sentence, and the second half is where the money is.
Brent Closed the Week Above $100 for the First Time Since May
Oil has had the kind of week that resets assumptions, and the direction surprised most people watching it.
Brent opened the week near $96, peaked around $108 on Thursday — its highest since 19 May — and settled back to about $103.78 on Friday morning. That is a weekly gain of roughly 8.4%, and the first weekly close above $100 since mid-May. West Texas Intermediate ran alongside it, up about 9.2% on the week to just over $99.
Friday’s pullback snapped five consecutive up days for Brent and an eight-day run for WTI. That is a pause in a rally rather than a reversal of one.
The driver is the Strait of Hormuz, which remains constrained. Roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil normally moves through it, and the market is now pricing a protracted conflict rather than a short one.
Underneath the headline sits a number that matters more than any single day’s move. The Energy Information Administration estimates global oil inventories have fallen by 400 million barrels so far this year, and expects them to keep falling through December.
Inventories are the shock absorber. A market with full tanks can lose a supply route for weeks and barely move. A market that has drained 400 million barrels responds to the same news with a price spike, because there is nothing left to draw on while the problem is solved.
The EIA’s own September outlook forecasts Brent averaging around $90 for the second half of this year. Prices are currently well above that, which tells you the forecast assumes the Strait gradually reopens. If it does not, the forecast is the thing that moves.
For a household the transmission is slow and certain. Crude works through freight first, then wholesale goods, then the shelf, over roughly six to nine months. Which is why an oil move in September is an inflation question for next spring, and why the Fed watches it more closely than the headline suggests.
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 Did you watch oil collapse 10% in five days — and freeze? Brent traded at $72 Friday after the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Most stare at the chart and do nothing. A small group waits for exactly this dislocation, because the historical track record on this setup has been strong since 2023. Larry Benedict’s defined-risk options method has shown past plays of $3,880, $4,354, and $6,268. The next setup could appear this week — catch it, or miss it. |
What is Scheduled
15–16 | September — the Federal Open Market Committee meets. Two working days away. |
$90 | the EIA’s forecast for average Brent in the second half of this year. It is trading well above that. |
400m | barrels drained from global inventories since January, and still falling. |
August inflation landed yesterday and the September meeting is now two working days away. The case for a rise was never resting on the labour side; it rests on prices, and oil has spent the week making that case louder.
Warsh has published no reaction function and given no forward guidance, so there is no stated framework against which to read the decision. The two-year Treasury yield in the minutes after the announcement will say more than the statement does.
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Ninety-Three Point Seven Percent, and Six Thousand Six Hundred Dollars Down
$6,600 | what a 93.7% win rate loses over five years if the average winner makes $100 and the average loser costs $1,600. The win rate is accurate. It is also half a sentence, and the half that decides the outcome is the average size of each result. |
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and ask for the average win and the average loss before any win rate means anything. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. Have a good weekend. |
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