The SpaceX S-1 Just Dropped at 116x Revenue. Here’s What History Says Happens to Day-One Buyers in the Biggest IPOs.

Elon Musk’s Crazy Prediction: 1,000X Your Money

Editor’s Note: What if you could claim a stake in what’s set to be the biggest IPO ever… starting with just $500? Click here to see the details from former tech executive and angel investor Jeff Brown — the man who picked Bitcoin, Tesla, and Nvidia before they exploded higher. Or read more below.

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In short, Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here. That turns $100 into $100,000… $500 into half a million dollars… And a tiny stake of $1,000 into $1 million.

If he’s right… And I believe he is…

SpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC on May 20 — two days ago. The company is targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX on June 12, with the roadshow beginning June 4 and pricing on June 11. The deal aims to raise approximately $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If it prices near that range, it surpasses Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing as the largest IPO in history — nearly three times the previous record.

What this means for your retirement accounts: The implied valuation works out to roughly 109 to 116 times trailing revenue. That is higher than Tesla’s multiple at its 2010 IPO, and higher than nearly every other publicly traded company today. The S-1 disclosed 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, a $4.9 billion net loss, and a $41.3 billion accumulated deficit. Elon Musk retains 85.1% voting control through a super-voting share class, so SPCX shareholders should expect minimal say over governance.

An honest counterpoint: None of this means SpaceX is a bad company. It is a genuinely extraordinary business — Starlink crossed 10 million subscribers and posted a $1.19 billion connectivity profit last quarter, and the launch business is dominant. The caution here is not about the company’s quality. It is about the price you pay to enter, and the crowd you enter alongside. Those are two very different questions, and the S-1 only answers the first one.

That gap — between a great company and a great entry price — is exactly what the louder pitches gloss over. Here is one of them, in its own words.

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History Is Unkind to Day-One Buyers in the Biggest IPOs. The Entry Point Decides the Return.

What this means for your portfolio: Seven of the ten largest IPOs in history underperformed the S&P 500 from their listing day. The forced institutional demand that floods in at the open is precisely what inflates the price before any fundamental analysis is possible. The lead underwriters — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America — do not price these deals to leave money on the table for retail. The investors who do well in mega-IPOs are rarely the ones buying shares at the open. They are the ones who arrived before the crowd.

While the World Fixates on One Ticker, Disciplined Money Tends to Look Where No One Is Pointing

There is a pattern that shows up around every major market event: the attention concentrates on one name, and the crowd pays a premium for it, while the less obvious opportunities adjacent to the event get overlooked. The investors with the longest, steadiest records rarely chase the headline. They look at where capital will be forced to flow next — the suppliers, the adjacent sectors, the overlooked tickers that benefit from the same wave without carrying the same crowded valuation.

Why this matters if you’re retired or near retirement: One of the traders with that kind of discipline is Larry Benedict, whose record is a matter of public documentation: 20 consecutive years without a single losing year (1990 through 2010), a top 1% Barron’s hedge-fund ranking, and a feature in Jack Schwager’s Hedge Fund Market Wizards alongside Ray Dalio. That kind of consistency does not come from chasing the hottest headline. It comes from patient positioning before the crowd arrives — the same principle that separates the early SpaceX holders from the day-one buyers.

Everyone is obsessed with SpaceX. That’s the wrong play

SpaceX is already valued at $1.75 trillion before a single share trades publicly. The investors who got rich on SpaceX got in years ago.

Larry Benedict — who didn’t have a losing year for 20 consecutive years — says while the world is fixated on the IPO, billions of dollars are quietly being set up to flow into ONE forgotten ticker. He’s revealing the name completely free.

Two Ways to Approach the Same Event. Both Avoid Paying the Top.

What this means for your portfolio: The SpaceX IPO is a real, once-in-a-decade event — but being interested in the event and overpaying for the headline ticker on day one are not the same thing. The disciplined approach has always been to care about the entry price and to look at where capital will be forced to flow next, rather than crowding into the single most-watched name at a record multiple. Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built. The best trade in an event like this is often the overpayment you never make.

Everyone is obsessed with SpaceX. That's the wrong play

SpaceX is already valued at $1.75 trillion before a single share trades publicly. The investors who got rich on SpaceX got in years ago. Larry Benedict — who didn’t have a losing year for 20 consecutive years — says while the world is fixated on the IPO, billions of dollars are quietly being set up to flow into ONE forgotten ticker. He’s revealing the name completely free.

Bottom Line

SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20, targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing under SPCX, with the roadshow June 4 and pricing June 11. The $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation would be the largest IPO in history, nearly three times the Saudi Aramco record. The implied multiple is 109 to 116 times trailing revenue — higher than Tesla’s 2010 IPO. The S-1 showed $18.67 billion in revenue, a $4.9 billion net loss, and a $41.3 billion accumulated deficit, with Musk holding 85.1% voting control. SpaceX is a remarkable company; the open question is the price the crowd pays to enter it on day one.

The louder pitch frames it differently. Jeff Brown — the man who picked Bitcoin, Tesla, and Nvidia before they exploded higher — says Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here, turning $100 into $100,000, $500 into half a million dollars, and a tiny stake of $1,000 into $1 million. Whether or not that prediction holds, the structural lesson stands on its own: seven of the ten largest IPOs in history underperformed the S&P 500 from their listing day, because the entry point — not the company — decides the early return.

That is why disciplined money tends to look where the crowd is not pointing. Larry Benedict — whose record of 20 consecutive years without a losing year is documented in Barron’s rankings and Jack Schwager’s Hedge Fund Market Wizards — says that while the world is fixated on the SpaceX IPO, billions of dollars are quietly being set up to flow into one forgotten ticker, and he’s revealing the name completely free. The specific pick is his to make; what the public record confirms is the credential behind it: two decades of not losing, built on patient positioning rather than chasing headlines.

Being interested in the SpaceX event and overpaying for the headline ticker at a record multiple are two different decisions. The disciplined approach cares about the entry price and looks at where capital will be forced to flow next, rather than crowding into the most-watched name on day one. Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built. The investors who arrive before the crowd, and who care more about what they pay than what they’re promised, are the ones who rarely have to learn this lesson the expensive way. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took.