The 30-year just hit 5.7%
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8 OCTOBER 2026
By Mike Leesponsored One Ticker Before 28 October |
 The Federal Reserve just warned another rate hike could hit soon… And one ticker could give you the chance to add big money to your account. But you need to be positioned before October 28. Get Larry Benedict’s ticker and see how to start with as little as $300. |
Three Numbers to Start
5.7% | the yield on a 30-year Treasury on Wednesday, the highest since 2002. |
17% | the futures-implied chance of a rate increase on 28 October. December sits near 70%. |
$1.95bn | the cash Newmont agreed to pay Barrick to settle their Nevada joint venture and fold a new discovery into it. |
ad The Federal Reserve just warned another rate hike could hit soon… and one ticker could give you the chance to add big money to your account. Get Larry Benedict’s ticker |
The Bond Market Reached 2002 Before the Fed Moved Again
The Fed published the minutes of its September meeting yesterday afternoon. Officials judged that another increase would likely be appropriate before the end of the year, and the record gave no date. Futures traders read it and kept the odds for 28 October near 17%, with December near 70%.
The long end of the Treasury market moved first. The 10-year yield climbed above 5.3% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2002, and the 30-year reached 5.7%. Oil back above $100 a barrel pushed part of that. So did a federal deficit the Congressional Budget Office puts at $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026, with net interest costs above $1 trillion.
The two ends of the curve moved in opposite directions on Wednesday. The 2-year yield slipped to about 4.77% as traders pushed the next increase out of October, while the 30-year kept climbing. Short rates follow the Fed. Long rates follow inflation and the supply of government debt, and both of those point up.
The real yield carries the bigger message. The 10-year inflation-protected Treasury started the year at 1.90%. It pays 2.94% above inflation now, locked for a decade, from the US government. The same move pushed the average 30-year mortgage rate to 7.49% last week, from 7.30% the week before.
The September consumer price index lands on 14 October. Energy prices rose 16.3% in the year to August and gasoline 27.4%, and the committee will read that line first when it meets.
Then comes the decision. Markets price 28 October as a hold, which puts the risk on the other side of the trade. A move the futures price at 17% reprices stocks, bonds and the dollar in one afternoon, and a hold that points firmly to December moves a different set of prices. Larry Benedict builds his trade on that calendar: one ticker, with the position in place before the announcement.
Barrick and Newmont Settled Nevada for $1.95 Billion
Two of the world’s largest gold miners have shared Nevada since 2019, when they combined their operations in the state into Nevada Gold Mines. Barrick owns 61.5% and runs it. Newmont owns 38.5%.
This summer they ended years of disputes over that arrangement. Under the agreement Barrick announced with its second-quarter results, each side brings in ground it had kept outside the venture. Barrick contributes Fourmile, a discovery it had held for itself. Newmont contributes its Mike and Fiberline properties and pays Barrick a $1.95 billion cash top-up. The enlarged venture holds close to 100 million ounces of gold.
The margin explains the cheque. Barrick realised $4,417 an ounce in the second quarter, and its North American all-in sustaining cost came to $1,729. That leaves about $2,690 on every ounce the region produces, and a new Nevada deposit at that margin is worth fighting over.
Barrick produced 796,000 ounces in the second quarter, above the top of its own guidance, and its North American mines ran below the company’s average all-in sustaining cost of $1,866. Barrick treats Fourmile as a potential standalone Tier One asset. It has 20 drill rigs on the property, planned to start an underground access decline in the third quarter, and targets a prefeasibility study in 2028.
The agreement also cleared the way for a listing. Newmont consented to Barrick’s plan to sell a minority stake in its North American gold business, including the Nevada interests and Fourmile, by the end of this year. Wall Street gets a new Nevada gold company within three months, and the majors are already pricing the ground next to the mines they run.
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The Air-Taxi Stocks Trade Two-Thirds Below Their Highs
Joby Aviation traded near $5.75 today, against a 52-week high of $18.77. Archer Aviation traded near $4.64, against $14.62. The market still values Joby at about $5.7 billion and Archer at $3.6 billion.
Both companies set out to carry paying passengers in 2025 and missed it. Joby is deep in for-credit flight testing with the FAA. Archer has moved through the earlier phases of type certification, and regulators in the UAE put its Midnight aircraft on a restricted-certificate path toward limited commercial flights. Neither holds a US type certificate today. Joby still has to finish the fourth stage of the FAA process before the fifth, where the agency issues the certificate.
The air-taxi route runs long because the aircraft carries members of the public for hire through busy airspace. United’s chief executive, an Archer partner, said in March that this part will take a few more years.
A personal two-seat aircraft travels a different road. Since 24 July, the FAA’s MOSAIC rule has let powered-lift aircraft sit in the light-sport category, certified against industry consensus standards instead of the full process written for airliners and air taxis. Doroni points to MOSAIC as the pathway for its H1-X, an electric two-seater the owner flies.
Public investors have already paid billions for air-taxi companies with no US passenger revenue. Doroni is still private, selling shares at $3.30 under Regulation A+ with the Nasdaq ticker DRNI reserved, and its bonus tiers start at $2,500.
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What Is Scheduled
14 Oct | the September consumer price index, two weeks before the decision. |
28 Oct | the rate decision. Futures put an increase at 17%. |
Year-end | Barrick’s target for listing its North American gold business, Nevada included. |
Two of those dates belong to the Fed and one to a gold miner, and all three land inside twelve weeks. Anyone who wants a position around them has to take it before the announcement.
ad But you need to be positioned before October 28. See how to start with as little as $300 |
Twenty-Four Years
5.7% | the yield on a 30-year Treasury on Wednesday, the highest since 2002. Long bonds repriced before the Fed acted, and the next repricing belongs to the 28 October decision, twenty days from today. |
Forget the hot picks — know the dates that move prices, and be in place before they arrive. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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