October Went From a 70% Hike to 17%
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7 OCTOBER 2026
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Three Numbers to Start
2pm | Eastern today, when the Fed publishes the minutes of the September meeting that raised rates for the first time since 2023. |
17% | the futures-implied chance of another increase on 28 October, down from about 70% straight after the meeting. |
90% | of a pipeline partnership’s income must come from qualifying sources for it to escape corporate tax under a 1987 law. |
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The Minutes Land at 2pm, and the Market Has Already Moved
The Fed publishes a detailed account of every meeting three weeks after it ends. The record of the September meeting arrives this afternoon. The tape already moved while it was being written.
On 16 September the committee raised its benchmark by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, unanimously. Sixteen of eighteen participants projected at least one more increase before December, and the median official raised the forecast for this year’s inflation to 3.7%.
Straight after that meeting, futures put the odds of another move on 28 October at around 70%. They now sit near 17%. Personal consumption inflation held steady in August, and the jobs report came in softer, and those two releases did what a dozen speeches had not. The hike already happened. The next one is the part the market just marked down.
So the minutes will be read for one thing. How many of those sixteen expected a second move soon, and how many called September a response to an energy shock. The vote is already on the record. The dividend the tariff is supposed to fund is the other cheque in the same policy, and it does not wait for the 2pm file.
The median official sees the rate at about 4.1% at the end of this year and the same at the end of next. That is one more quarter point, then a hold. Cash already pays close to the policy rate, so the September move reached savers within weeks. A pause holds that yield. It does not unwind the tariff. The first cheque is the rate. The next one is the dividend the policy was written to pay, and the media is still on the minutes.
The September consumer price index lands on 14 October, two weeks before the decision. It is the number the minutes cannot account for. The position that does not wait for it is the one already on the tariff side of the ledger.
A 1987 Law Created a Tax-Deferred Income Stream From Pipelines
A different yield sits inside the energy system, and the tax treatment is the reason the cheque is larger than the headline yield.
The Revenue Act of 1987 added section 7704 to the tax code. It allows a publicly traded partnership to avoid corporate income tax if at least 90% of its income comes from qualifying sources, chiefly the transport, processing and storage of oil and gas. That is the legal basis of the master limited partnership, and it is why ordinary accounts can collect from the pipe.
Because pipelines carry heavy depreciation, much of each payment is classed as a return of capital rather than income. It is not taxed when received. It lowers the cost basis, so the tax arrives later, when the units are sold. That is the 70% deferral. The cheque lands now. The bill does not.
Held to the sale, the deferred amount is largely taxed as ordinary income under a recapture rule. Units held until death pass to heirs with a stepped-up basis, and the deferred tax disappears. The July 2025 tax law made the 20% deduction for qualified business income permanent, and qualifying partnership income is eligible for it. That is the after-tax yield on a taxable account that holds.
The form is a K-1, and it often arrives in March. These are usually held in a taxable account, not an IRA. None of that changes the payout calendar. Eight to ten percent, paid on the pipe, and the next one is days away.
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A Game From 2016 Sold for $3.5 Billion in 2025
The third story is a different kind of durable revenue, and the price is already on the tape.
In March 2025 the games business that includes Pokémon GO was sold for $3.5 billion. The flagship title launched in the summer of 2016. Nine years later it anchored one of the larger games transactions of the year. Forecasts put $37.7 billion of investment into games by 2030. The market those buyers are paying for is the one set to double.
A successful game is not a product that sells once. It collects for years from players who keep returning, through in-game purchases, seasonal content and events, after the launch costs are recovered. The live-service model pays the title that keeps its audience. A franchise that already has that audience shortens the odds. Comics in the millions, four seasons as a number-one show, and a first in-house release are the staying power the $3.5 billion cheque was written for. The window on the studio entering that market closes on 22 October.
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What is Scheduled
Today | the minutes of the September meeting, at 2pm Eastern. |
14 Oct | the September consumer price index, two weeks before the decision. |
22 Oct | the close on the studio entering the games market, six days before the rate decision. |
The minutes say what the committee thought three weeks ago. The inflation print says whether it was right. The 22 October close does not wait for either of them.
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From Seventy to Seventeen
17% | the chance markets now give an October rate increase, down from about 70% straight after the September meeting. The hike already landed. The tariff dividend is the other cheque in the same policy, and the pipe still pays 8 to 10 percent with most of it deferred. |
Forget the hot picks — protect what you’ve already built, and take the cheque the policy already wrote. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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