Diesel Hit a Record $6.53, and the Fed May Hike Six Days Before the Election
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15 OCTOBER 2026
By Mike Leesponsored Oil as a Weapon |
Ukraine attacked Moscow. Over 60 drones. The capital was hit.  Once again, Ukraine proved that oil is now a weapon of war — and manipulation. But there is one company that makes oil completely obsolete. Irrelevant. Useless. Click to watch the video → P.S. This changes everything. |
Three Numbers to Start
$6.53 | the record US diesel price per gallon, set on 21 September, the highest in 32 years of EIA tracking. |
41.5% | the odds traders put on a Fed rate hike on 28 October after Wednesday’s inflation report, up from 22.1%. |
8,000x | how many times retail orders exceeded the shares on offer in Unitree Robotics’ Shanghai IPO. |
ad Once again, Ukraine proved that oil is now a weapon of war — and manipulation. Click to watch the video |
Diesel Hit a Record $6.53 a Gallon
The average American diesel price reached $6.53 a gallon on 21 September, the highest in the 32 years the Energy Information Administration has tracked it. On 12 January it was $3.46, so the price rose 89% in eight months. It eased to $6.38 by 28 September, and AAA put it at $6.27 on 9 October, 10 cents lower than a week earlier. That is still about 70% above where diesel stood when the Iran war began.
Gasoline climbed more slowly. Regular rose from $2.78 a gallon in January to $4.50 in May and averaged $4.47 in the last week of September. In Wednesday’s inflation report, gasoline prices were 34.2% higher than a year earlier and accounted for more than half of September’s 0.6% rise in consumer prices.
Diesel matters more than its share of the pump. It runs the trucks, trains, tractors and ships that move almost everything else, so its cost moves into freight rates and from there into what stores charge. Energy prices overall were 20.4% higher in September than a year earlier.
Washington Is Buying Russian Diesel
On 9 October President Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel: more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that, about 1.8 million tonnes in all. A week earlier the G7 had agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from emergency stocks, and Washington widened access to tax-exempt red-dyed diesel. The Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and oil products to the United States and world markets.
That supply depends on Russian refineries that Ukraine has spent the year targeting. In May, Reuters counted refineries with more than 83 million tonnes a year of capacity that had halted or cut output, nearly a quarter of Russia’s total and more than 30% of its gasoline production. Russia banned gasoline exports until 31 July.
Mr Trump announced an energy ceasefire on Sunday. On Thursday President Zelensky told the Financial Times that Kyiv was done with it, and Russia’s defence ministry reported a fire at the Ryazan refinery, 180 kilometres south of Moscow, after drone debris fell on the site.
The same barrels now move prices, elections and peace talks at once. Oil is the lever. The video at the top of this letter names the company it says could make that lever useless.
Traders See a 41.5% Chance the Fed Hikes Before the Election
Kevin Warsh took over as Fed chair on 15 May, after the Senate confirmed him 54 to 45. On 16 September his Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, in a 12-0 vote. “Inflation is too high and has been for too long,” he said. Warsh has called the post-pandemic price surge the biggest policy error in 40 or 50 years, and he has long argued for a smaller Fed balance sheet.
Wednesday’s report gave him more to work with. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, and core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 2.6%. Both annual figures came in a tenth of a point above forecasts.
CME’s FedWatch tool put the odds of another quarter-point hike on 28 October at 41.5% by Wednesday afternoon, up from 22.1% before the report. The meeting falls six days before the midterm elections. Since 1990 the Fed has raised rates that close to an election only once, on 2 November 2022, and that hike was three-quarters of a point.
A hike would take the range to 4% to 4.25%. In September the median Fed official projected 4.1% for the end of the year, which already allows for one more move.
Larry Benedict skips the 50-stock portfolio. He follows one ticker that sits at the centre of Fed policy, and he is giving the symbol away free. The Fed decides in 13 days.
sponsored One Ticker |
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A Robot IPO Drew 8,000 Times More Orders Than Shares
Unitree Robotics, a Hangzhou maker of humanoid and four-legged robots, listed on Shanghai’s STAR Market on 19 August. Retail investors oversubscribed the offer more than 8,000 times: 9.8 million accounts competed for about 9.7 million shares, and fewer than two applications in every 10,000 won an allocation.
The shares were priced at 150.80 yuan and closed the first day at 845 yuan, up 460% after an intraday gain of as much as 629%, which valued the company at about $50.9 billion. Unitree reported 2025 revenue of 1.70 billion yuan, up 335%, and shipped about 5,500 humanoid robots during the year. It earned 278 million yuan on a gross margin of about 60%, and the listing raised about $907 million.
The factory floor is the larger market. The International Federation of Robotics counted about 5 million industrial robots at work worldwide at the end of 2025, a record, after more than 600,000 installations in the year, 11% more than in 2024. China installed 59% of them, while installations in the European Union fell 11%. The United States installed 38,400, up 12%, and overtook Japan as the second-largest market.
Miso Robotics builds Flippy, a robot that works the fry station, and counts White Castle, Jersey Mike’s and Cinnabon among its customers. It is raising money from individual investors under Regulation A. Unitree set a public price for robot makers. Miso is still private.
sponsored The Fry-Station Robot |
8,000X Oversubscription Could Reset Robotics Stocks Robotics stocks are having a pivotal moment. And one of those stocks resets its price in days. A recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed 8,000X, and nuts and bolts flew in celebration. Experts say this frenzy is reshaping how investors view robotics stocks — including Miso. Everyday investors have been paying close attention to where this is heading. a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. Miso's Flippy robot works the fry station and was already boosting profits up to 4x for restaurant brands like White Castle. That led industry powerhouse Ecolab to invest in Miso’s growth and NVIDIA to collaborate.  Now, after Miso made two major asset acquisitions in 2026, Flippy is the star of Miso’s expanding ecosystem. Customers think of it as the new operating system for modern restaurants. This year alone, Miso added big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s and Cinnabon, and grew their patent portfolio by ~10X to over 300. Their robots have even expanded beyond restaurants, entering college campuses and NBA arenas. 44,000+ people already claimed their stake — before an 8,000X-oversubscribed IPO put a spotlight on the whole sector. That spotlight is putting the whole sector in focus. Miso Robotics is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. A copy of the Final Offering Circular that forms a part of the Offering Statement may be obtained from: invest.misorobotics.com/ |
What Is Scheduled
21 Oct | Tesla reports third-quarter results after the close. |
28 Oct | the Fed’s rate decision. FedWatch puts the odds of a hike at 41.5%. |
3 Nov | the midterm elections. |
10 Nov | the October consumer price index. |
ad But there is one company that makes oil completely obsolete. Irrelevant. Useless. Watch now before it's gone |
Eighty-Nine Percent
89% | The rise in the US diesel price from 12 January to its record on 21 September. Diesel moves the trucks and farm machines behind almost every price in the CPI. The video at the top names the company it says could make oil obsolete. |
Forget the hot picks — price the barrel before you price the stock. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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