Brent Settled at $105.69. Chinese Refiners Paid $20 Over It.
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14 OCTOBER 2026
By Mike Leesponsored The Real Target |
Trump Had a Hidden Reason for Bombing Iran.  According to this presentation... Iran may never have been the real target. It was only the first move in a much larger war that could reshape the global economy. |
Three Numbers to Start
$105.69 | Brent’s settlement on Tuesday, 48% above its last pre-war close of $71.32. |
590,000 | barrels a day of Iranian oil that China imported in September, the least since January 2023. |
4.1M | suspicious activity reports that financial institutions filed with FinCEN in 2025, a record. |
ad Trump Had a Hidden Reason for Bombing Iran. Iran may never have been the real target. See the full story |
Brent Settled at $105.69, 48% Above Its Pre-War Price
Brent crude settled at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday. On 27 February, the last trading day before the first strikes on Iran, it closed at $71.32. It peaked at $138 on 7 April and fell below $100 the next day, after the two sides agreed a two-week ceasefire. Crude is up more than 70% since January, Bloomberg calculates, and diesel has risen faster.
The oil is moving again, by other routes. Kpler counted at least 10.1 million barrels a day of crude through the Strait of Hormuz in the week to 6 October, 74% of the pre-war level. Exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels a day, more than double their pre-war rate, and kept total Middle East crude exports near where they stood before the war.
The ships are fewer. On 6 October seven commodity vessels crossed the strait, the fewest since 23 July. Before the war about 125 large commercial ships crossed on an average day. Saudi Aramco could add 1.2 million barrels a day of export capacity outside Hormuz within seven to eight weeks by converting gas pipelines, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
The Gulf producers have found ways round the strait. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE shipped almost 13 million barrels a day in September, the most since February, according to ship-tracking data cited by The Wall Street Journal. Saudi output rebounded last month from its lowest level in more than three decades, the kingdom told OPEC, and seven OPEC+ members agreed on 4 October to hold their November targets at a combined 31.01 million barrels a day.
China Is Paying Up to $20 Over Brent for Iraqi Oil
Iran loaded about 2 million barrels a day in March, according to Reuters shipping data. The United States reimposed its blockade on 13 July, and by August loadings had fallen to between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels a day. Kpler now puts Iran’s exports at about 250,000 barrels a day, all of it moving overland.
China bought more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil last year. Its imports of Iranian crude fell to 590,000 barrels a day in September, the least since January 2023, and most of those barrels came from cargoes already at sea. Iranian oil on tankers outside the blockade zone dropped from 100 million barrels in late July to 45 million. In August, Iranian Light briefly traded at a $3.50 premium to Brent, a week after it sold at a $3.50 discount.
The independent refiners in Shandong felt it first. Traders told Hydrocarbon Processing that the refiners bought at least 12 million barrels of Iraqi and Qatari crude for October and November delivery, at premiums of $12 to about $20 a barrel over Brent. Refinery runs in the province fell to about 55% by the end of September, and margins swung to losses of 250 to 500 yuan a tonne.
Kpler estimates that Iran’s crude revenue could reach zero by mid-December. Kpler puts the loss to Tehran at $3 billion to $6 billion a month. Chinese refiners pay more for every barrel they replace. The presentation at the top of this letter says Iran was only the first move in a much larger fight over the global economy. The Shandong premium is what that fight costs today.
Banks Filed a Record 4.1 Million Suspicious Activity Reports
Financial institutions filed more than 4.1 million suspicious activity reports with the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in 2025, a record and 8% more than in 2024. Banks, savings associations and credit unions filed 2.19 million of them. Across all filers, that works out to more than 11,000 reports a day.
The most common reason in bank filings was suspicion about the source of funds, at 9.1%. Next came transactions with no apparent economic or lawful purpose, at 9.0%, and transactions below the $10,000 cash-reporting threshold, at 8.7%.
Federal law bars a bank from telling a customer that it filed a report, and a bank can close an account after filing one. Banks also file a currency transaction report on every cash deposit or withdrawal above $10,000. Splitting cash deposits to stay under $10,000 is a federal offence in its own right, called structuring.
Savers are also holding more money above the insurance line. The FDIC estimated that uninsured domestic deposits, the balances above the $250,000 limit, rose by $317.4 billion in the second quarter. Deposit insurance covers $250,000 per depositor, per bank, for each ownership category, and nothing above it.
Martin Weiss, founder of Weiss Ratings, has a new video on what he calls a banking switch, with four steps to protect your cash. He starts with a Fed docket number, OP-1670. The reports stay confidential. His four steps do not.
sponsored The Banking Switch |
 Make this banking ‘switch’ today to protect your cash. Watch this new video from Martin Weiss, and learn how to protect your retirement savings in 4 simple steps. Image you wake up, get a cup of coffee, login to your bank account and see an alert: your account’s transactions are FROZEN. Your ability to receive and send money is shut down. What did you do? Nothing. It all started with Fed Docket No. OP-1670. This federal program could give unelected officials the power to closely monitor or even freeze your bank account based on:
Martin Weiss has spent the past 50 years consistently warning investors ahead of time about big bank failures. In a new video, he explains why he believes this new program puts Washington uncomfortably close to your savings. Watch now, and learn the four simple steps you can take to protect your cash today. |
Tesla Put 300 Cybercabs on Austin Roads in 30 Days
Tesla’s Robotaxi account said on Saturday that the service had scaled to 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin, an eightfold increase in 30 days. Texas registrations tracked by Tesla Oracle showed 319 Cybercabs and 420 Model Y robotaxis on 12 October, 739 vehicles in all.
The Cybercab is the two-seat model Tesla built without a steering wheel or pedals. Tesla started the robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 with a small fleet of Model Y cars and a safety monitor in the passenger seat. Austin is still the only American city where Tesla uses the Cybercab for paid rides, and other cities run Model Y robotaxis. Earlier this month the service extended its evening hours to 11pm, and Tesla plans to show the Cybercab at the Paris Motor Show.
The car business beat expectations in the quarter. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles against a consensus of 461,974 and deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage. It reports third-quarter results on 21 October after the market closes.
The fleet numbers are public. Jeff Brown filmed himself letting a Tesla drive him a few miles to show what he calls Elon Musk’s next big project. The demo is below. See what happened.
sponsored Musk's Next Big Project |
This Tesla Demo Shocks Everyone "Hi, I'm Jeff Brown...I'm about to get in this Tesla and let it take me a few miles to show you Elon Musk's next Big Project today… What happens next will shock you…"  Sincerely, Jeff Brown Founder, Brownstone Research |
What Is Scheduled
14 Oct | the September consumer price index and the 2027 Social Security adjustment at 8:30am Eastern. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML report results. |
15 Oct | TSMC reports third-quarter results. |
21 Oct | Tesla reports third-quarter results after the close. |
28 Oct | the Fed’s rate decision, six days before the midterm elections. |
ad It was only the first move in a much larger war that could reshape the global economy. See the full story |
Twenty Dollars Over Brent
$20 | The premium over Brent that refiners in Shandong paid for Iraqi crude this autumn, as Iranian cargoes dried up. Brent itself settled at $105.69 on Tuesday. The presentation at the top says Iran was only the first move. |
Forget the hot picks — follow the barrel to whoever pays for it. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
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