The economy grew 3.4% as the Fed held rates on a split vote, Microsoft plans $170 billion of capital spending, and private-credit funds keep capping withdrawals.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
29 OCTOBER 2026
By Mike Lee
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Three Numbers to Start
3.4% | the economy’s annualized growth rate in the third quarter, reported this morning, up from 2.2% in the second. |
10–2 | the Fed’s vote to hold rates on Wednesday. Both dissenters wanted a hike. |
$170B | the capital spending Microsoft plans for its fiscal year to June 2027. |
AutoCamp’s Offer Closes Today
A crowdfunding offer runs on a clock. Under the federal rules, an investor can cancel a commitment for any reason until 48 hours before the offer closes, FINRA explains; inside those last two days the commitment stands. Shares bought this way are hard to resell for the first year.
AutoCamp sells nights in the trailers rather than the trailers themselves, and its rooms can be booked through Hilton Honors. Hilton named it the exclusive outdoor hospitality partner, opening the properties to 200 million Honors members. The company says it has welcomed 1 million guests and generated $150 million in lifetime lodging revenue. Shares are $9.10. The deadline is today. The offer and the offering circular are at the top of this letter.
The Economy Grew 3.4% as the Fed Held
The Commerce Department said this morning that the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second. Consumers spent more on both goods and services, businesses added to inventories and bought equipment, and federal spending rose as the government sold less oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Exports fell and imports rose. Inflation in the report cooled: the PCE price index rose at a 2.1% rate, down from 5.0%, and the core measure, which leaves out food and energy, at 2.5%, down from 3.3%.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, a month after its first hike since 2023. The vote was 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted another quarter-point rise. The statement upgraded growth from “solid” to “strong” and said inflation “remains elevated.” “Politics played no role in the decision,” Chair Kevin Warsh said, six days before the midterm elections. Traders put the chance of a hike on 9 December at about 85%, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.04%. The S&P 500, which had fallen on each of the previous six Fed days, held a small gain.
Microsoft Plans to Spend $170 Billion This Fiscal Year
Microsoft reported revenue of $92.3 billion for the quarter to September after the close on Wednesday, and Azure, its cloud business, grew 48% to $33.2 billion. It spent $39.4 billion on capital projects, including leases, and plans more than $50 billion this quarter and about $170 billion for the fiscal year to June 2027. It brought 24 new data centers online across five continents, and its contracted backlog rose 73% to $677 billion. OpenAI paid Microsoft $10 billion in the quarter, about 11% of its revenue. “Efficiency is stability; it’s security; it’s reliability,” chief financial officer Amy Hood said. Microsoft said it is bringing capacity online faster and getting more out of existing data centers through its own chips, models and software.
Alphabet spent about $51 billion on capital projects in its third quarter, more than double the $24 billion of a year earlier. Its free cash flow came out at about minus $9 billion for the second quarter in a row, and it bought back no stock.

Every one of those data centers needs power. A Department of Energy report put data centers at 4.4% of American electricity use in 2023, or 176 terawatt-hours, up from 58 in 2014, and projected 6.7% to 12% by 2028. The report said their demand tripled over the past decade and could double or triple again by 2028.
A drilling crew went three miles under Utah. The note below asks what they found, and says the answer could change how America powers AI. Pick an answer to see the names.
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Private-Credit Funds Keep Capping Withdrawals
Private credit, the loans that funds make directly to companies, is showing strain. Fitch put the default rate on American private credit at a record 6.3% in August, and the median business development company, the listed or non-traded funds that hold these loans, had 2.8% of its loans on nonaccrual in the second quarter, the most since 2017. Moody’s estimates the true default rate at 5.8%, against a reported 4%. The tallies come from Yardeni Research’s private-credit monitor.
Investors noticed. Requests to withdraw from non-traded funds reached 12.4% of assets in the second quarter, a record, and only 38% of the money asked for was paid out, leaving a $9.6 billion backlog. Most of these funds cap withdrawals at 5% of shares a quarter. In the third quarter Blackstone’s BCRED received requests for 10%, Morgan Stanley’s North Haven fund for 11.4%, Apollo’s fund for 14.7% and Cliffwater’s for 16%, and each paid out 5%. Fundraising by non-traded business development companies fell 82% from a year earlier to $2 billion in the second quarter. The Financial Stability Board puts the market at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.

Martin Weiss says the next cracks are forming in private credit and names the institutions he considers most exposed. He warned about Bear Stearns 102 days before it collapsed and about Lehman 181 days before its meltdown. His briefing, with five steps, is below.
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On the calendar: Amazon, Intel and Starbucks report after the close today, Tesla’s sworn answers to NHTSA and Exxon Mobil’s results are due on Friday, the midterm elections follow on 3 November, and the Fed meets again on 9 December.
Forty-Eight Hours
48 | hours before a crowdfunding offer closes, an investor loses the right to cancel. AutoCamp’s offer, at the top of this letter, closes today. |
Forget the hot picks — know when you can cancel before you commit. Because the best trade you’ll ever make is the loss you never took. Mike LeeDeals CatchersThanks for reading. See you tomorrow. |
* This is a paid advertisement for AutoCamp Regulation Crowdfunding offering. Please read the offering circular at
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